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  1. Post
    #1

    2012 US Election thread

    I personally don't see how Obama can lose, namely because the republicans don't have a single contender that appears to be even relatively sane (Especially Ron Paul. Let's just get that out of the way now)

    Palin's gone, Bachmann's bigger joke than her, Herman Cain leaked his own scandal, Rick Perry appears to have been dropped on his head quite a bit, nobody takes Ron Paul seriously, Mitt Romney is a mormon, Jon Huntsman says things like "I believe in evolution" ruling him out of the republican race.

    Do the republicans have a snowball's chance in hell?

  2. Post
    #2
    Change we can believe in. (We sure got the change he wanted )

    Obama has shown that he is way out of his depth. He used his two years of full democrat control to focus on pushing a healthcare bill that no one wants at a completely inappropriate time, while doing little else. Hopefully the mid term elections are a preview of what is to come.

    With a good republican candidate (which few are right now) who can appeal to people across the board, Obama has no chance, all he would have going for him is recycled slogans and the fact he is black and perhaps the ability to play the ye olde racism card a few times. His record is abysmal, and it doesn't look to change anytime soon.

    But yes, the republican field is garbage right now, but the US did elect George Bush

  3. Post
    #3
    It's the economy, stupid.

  4. Post
    #4
    Lego wrote:
    Change we can believe in. (We sure got the change he wanted )

    Obama has shown that he is way out of his depth. He used his two years of full democrat control to focus on pushing a healthcare bill that no one wants at a completely inappropriate time, while doing little else. Hopefully the mid term elections are a preview of what is to come.

    With a good republican candidate (which few are right now) who can appeal to people across the board, Obama has no chance, all he would have going for him is recycled slogans and the fact he is black and perhaps the ability to play the ye olde racism card a few times. His record is abysmal, and it doesn't look to change anytime soon.

    But yes, the republican field is garbage right now, but the US did elect George Bush
    He can't get things done even with Democrat control, Washington is completely paralyzed by interest groups on all sides.

    It's why anytime they try to pass anything there are always 1001 pork barrel bits tabbed on.

  5. Post
    #5
    Obama is leading both Romney and Gingrich in polls at the moment.

    I think part of Obama's saving grace is the poor light all politicos over there are viewed. This debacle about the debt ceiling, the way the super committee cannot agree is all making people view Obama's record in a more positive light, at least by comparision. There is also the plus for Obama that he is busy squirriling away cash while Romney and Gingrich are spending heavily.

  6. Post
    #6
    Obama is paying $1.77 to win. Both Romney & Gingrich are $3.50 - if that's anything to go by, it would be a close race...

  7. Post
    #7
    Ron Paul!

  8. Post
    #8
    ISavent I don't see what you're saying?

    In no way shape or form are any of the republican contenders out of the race yet, excluding Cain. I think you're forgetting that the American people are a simpleton breed of people.

    The fact that Bush won two elections, and McCain received a vastly significant percentage last election just goes to show that this republican line up is just as strong as its ever been.

  9. Post
    #9
    Orgasm wrote:
    Ron Paul!

  10. Post
    #10
    mafro wrote:
    The fact that Bush won two elections, and McCain received a vastly significant percentage last election just goes to show that this republican line up is just as strong as its ever been.
    This, while McCain got trounced in the electorates, the popular vote was a mere 52/45% split with minor runners-up making up the other votes. Obama was also able to raise a load more cash, $532m vs.$379m for McCain. I don't believe with Obama's popularity numbers he'll be able to pull those sorts of figures again, even against someone as uncharismatic as McCain was.

  11. Post
    #11
    Gingrich can't stand up to scrutiny, nationwide he's polling tied with Romney at 30 but he's dropped from 27% to 22% to 14% in Iowa where negative attack ads have been hitting him for several weeks now. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from 62/31 to 52/40 to now 46/47. Romney has the edge because he has New Hampshire in the bag and it will be a domino effect from there on to South Carolina and Florida where he's polling rather well.

    Ron Paul is Romney's biggest friend right now, blocking Gingrich in Iowa and buying a lot of airtime all geared at bringing down Gingrich's favorability numbers. He'll pick up Iowa and a few open states, he brings in a lot of independents and centrist democrats. I wouldn't be surprised if he picks up a Palin endorsement and then becomes a significant player. When Bachman capitulates he will pick up +5 from her supporters. I don't think that's enough to break through, but you never know. His support is entrenched and always trends upward, he's picked up 6 points nationwide and is sitting third at 15.

    Romney's win is predicated on the Gingrich bubble bursting, which looks inevitable at this point. He has a HUGE warchest and half a dozen super PAC's ready to go, so I don't think it's possible for him to be defeated at this point.

  12. Post
    #12

  13. Post
    #13
    Id rather have Obama than Ron "Would outlaw abortion" Paul

  14. Post
    #14
    Ron Paul is pretty crazy.


  15. Post
    #16
    And people wonder why I think RON PAUL! supporters are either woefully unaware of what the man stands for, or are like him, insane.

  16. Post
    #17
    Meh, at least he's quite open with what he stands for and his intentions.
    Wouldn't say he's any less/more bat shit insane than any of the other Republican runners.

  17. Post
    #18
    The rebulicans will make something up about obama, spend millions on advertising and pushing the lie on the American public. The American public will believe the lie. Obama will lose.

  18. Post
    #19
    Well they already tried the whole 'He wasn't born in America/He's a muslim/Kenyan!!' thing, and that didn't stick, so it'll have to be something pretty epic considering they're having a tough enough time convincing their own people that any of their own candidates are worth voting for...

  19. Post
    #20
    They won't win this election. Although I think they'll do a lot better than OP is making out. A Supreme Court case last year means that PACs/Corporations can now spend virtually unlimited amounts of money on campaign ads and billboards. They are now outspending the unions by a long way. They've managed to pump money into marginal states all around the country and win the state senates over. In turn this means that many of these states like North Carolina are now being Gerrymandered in favour of the Republicans. Both parties do this, but the Republicans are doing a much better job of it.
    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...urrentPage=all
    http://www.npr.org/2011/10/06/141078...licans-win-n-c

    Still, certain issues like immigration will be a huge obstacle for the GOP.

  20. Post
    #21
    BURN_BABY wrote:
    the popular vote was a mere 52/45% split
    52/45 is huge in the US presedential popular vote. That's millions of votes difference.

    Denker wrote:
    Meh, at least he's quite open with what he stands for and his intentions.
    Not really, when it comes to things like certain past statements and how minorities will fair in his brave new world he becomes extremely political with miss America styled answers. He's just as sleazy as any other politician, he just has a bunch of naive counter-culture retards backing him.

  21. Post
    #22
    It's still quite a tight race, even if it was millions of votes it's out of 300 million people. It portrays a different picture to the elecotrates, where McCain got beat nearly 3:1.


  22. Post
    #24
    |_emon
    Guest

  23. Post
    #25
    Regardless of how crazy Ron Paul is, hes too old to get elected at 76. Would look like shit next to the youthful obama.

    Romney is mormon, doesn't stand a chance of getting elected unless half the country stays at home on election day. I doubt a mormon could get elected to the highest position in any western country, let alone in america with all its racism and intolerance.

    Gingrich is their best bet atm, but really its probably going to take a new, as yet unseen candidate for the republicans to have a realistic shot of beating obama on the day.