The climate change debate and potential solutions thread

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  1. Post
    By 2050 many cities will have a very different climate and weather

    Actual study link

    According to the map Auckland will resemble Sydney by 2050, with Wellington resembling Auckland. In the northern hemisphere many cities will resemble those ~1000km south of them today, e.g. London will be like Barcelona.

    It should be noted that this is all assuming RCP4.5 which is considered by the authors to be optimistic and that these conditions are likely to occur even with substantial mitigation.

    To generate the data, we chose Representative Common Pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) as the input. It is a stabilization scenario, meaning that it accounts for a stabilization of radiative forcing before 2100, anticipating the development of new technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions [23]. By using this optimistic climate change scenario, we represent conservative changes in climate conditions that are likely to occur even if substantial climate change mitigation occurs.

  2. Post
    I think our cities will be influenced a lot more by our Tasman sea, so the impacts may not be as severe as like Sydney which has the desert winds from the west, while we have the sea breezes from the Tasman sea. But I agree, it will be somewhat warmer.

  3. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    I think our cities will be influenced a lot more by our Tasman sea, so the impacts may not be as severe as like Sydney which has the desert winds from the west, while we have the sea breezes from the Tasman sea. But I agree, it will be somewhat warmer.
    According to the map, Sydney won't warm as much as Auckland. But both are on the lower end. The northern hemisphere has it far worse. Especially the Mediterranean.

  4. Post
    forget this science mumbo jumbo, this guy has cracked global warming

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  5. Post
    From Hell on Earth to Hell in Earth

  6. Post
    One of the things I have observed is that many view actions to stop Climate change as some kind of socialist / left-wing conspiracy to get money out of people. What gives this view some credence is the fact that the so-called NZ Green Party (which I do support btw), has very strong socialist ideas. So support for actions to mitigate Climate Change is seen as supporting a Left-Wing agenda, which limits any meaningful results.

  7. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    One of the things I have observed is that many view actions to stop Climate change as some kind of socialist / left-wing conspiracy to get money out of people. What gives this view some credence is the fact that the so-called NZ Green Party (which I do support btw), has very strong socialist ideas. So support for actions to mitigate Climate Change is seen as supporting a Left-Wing agenda, which limits any meaningful results.
    Very few organizations/people/governments are actually trying to stop climate change, most are looking at how to exploit for more money.

    Global collapse within 10 years imo. The weather is already becoming erratic and more powerful with India and the US to collapse first.

  8. Post
    CODChimera wrote:
    Very few organizations/people/governments are actually trying to stop climate change, most are looking at how to exploit for more money.

    Global collapse within 10 years imo. The weather is already becoming erratic and more powerful with India and the US to collapse first.
    One of india's biggest cities came within a day of running out of water a couple of weeks ago. Luckily for them the long delayed rainy season saved their asses but that'll only last so long.

  9. Post
    CODChimera wrote:
    Global collapse within 10 years imo. The weather is already becoming erratic and more powerful with India and the US to collapse first.
    I hope you are wrong.

    Kinda like a resource/climate brinkmanship,

    If there are wars for resources (like food, water, habitable land) in the not too distant future due to ever increasing dwindling of such resources due to climate change, then opposing nations will need to have all their production capability to win such wars.

    I.E, They will need to continue burning coal and all the bad stuff for environment to maintain their military and civilization in the anticipation of food/water/land wars, but in doing so brings such wars closer to our doorstep.

    Polluting in anticipation of wars due to pollution.

  10. Post
    kierbear wrote:
    One of india's biggest cities came within a day of running out of water a couple of weeks ago. Luckily for them the long delayed rainy season saved their asses but that'll only last so long.
    Was that climate change or a rapidly growing city failing to build infrastructure? Reports are that this has very little to do with climate change and that Chennai has significant infrastructure issues (including not being able to cope with the rain when the monsoon does hit).

  11. Post
    BattleCrap wrote:
    I hope you are wrong.

    Kinda like a resource/climate brinkmanship,

    If there are wars for resources (like food, water, habitable land) in the not too distant future due to ever increasing dwindling of such resources due to climate change, then opposing nations will need to have all their production capability to win such wars.

    I.E, They will need to continue burning coal and all the bad stuff for environment to maintain their military and civilization in the anticipation of food/water/land wars, but in doing so brings such wars closer to our doorstep.

    Polluting in anticipation of wars due to pollution.
    I hope I'm wrong too but more and more things are pointing towards it. Everything is 'worse than expected' or 'faster than expected'...

    You're right about the war stuff, the US armed forces(which already causes a shitload of pollution) already invades countries for oil, imagine what they'll do for food and water. And how are India and Pakistan not going to obliterate each other and possibly the world when there's mass migration and lack of resources destabilizing the area?

  12. Post
    CODChimera wrote:
    Global collapse within 10 years imo. The weather is already becoming erratic and more powerful with India and the US to collapse first.
    i hope the global helium shortage doesn't get too bad before shit hits the fan

  13. Post
    It is interesting how the talk is not about how we can stop it, but how are we going to adapt to it.

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  14. Post
    I'm pretty sure our decades of inaction means we can't stop it anymore.

  15. Post
    kierbear wrote:
    I'm pretty sure our decades of inaction means we can't stop it anymore.
    I always thought the ETS was nothing more than a swap meet, and not do anything substantial to reduce actual CO2 output growth and regrettably I have been proved right about that.

  16. Post
    I mean it's pointless as long as ag keeps getting excluded, given that it's the primary source of GHG emissions in this country.

  17. Post
    kierbear wrote:
    I mean it's pointless as long as ag keeps getting excluded, given that it's the primary source of GHG emissions in this country.
    I think the fact that most of our dairy and meat is pasture grown, that should count for something. i.e. more environmentally friendly than other countries methods.

    Pasture absorbs 3 tons of CO2 per acre or about 8 tons per hectare. So for dairy specifically;

    3 cows per hectare x 1.7million hectares = 5,100,000 cows. 5,100,000 cows x 1.6 to 2.7 tons p.a. = 8,160,000 to 13,770,000 tons of CO2 equivalent Methane

    versus

    1.7 million hectares x 8 tons of CO2 absorption per hectare = 13,600,000 tons of CO2 absorption

    New Zealand is not too bad in fact.

    However, the rest of the pollutants like fertiliser and manure may be of more concern, which I understand they are cleaning up.

  18. Post
    kierbear wrote:
    I'm pretty sure our decades of inaction means we can't stop it anymore.
    I'm pretty sure NZ would have made no difference no matter what we did (short of killing off the human race).

  19. Post
    Gesellschaft wrote:
    i hope the global helium shortage doesn't get too bad before shit hits the fan
    don't worry there will be all sorts of cults and death crews popping up soon

    retirement looking not so good at this point

  20. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    I'm pretty sure NZ would have made no difference no matter what we did (short of killing off the human race).
    when I say decades of inaction, I'm referring to every country on the planet. NZ isn't the only country guilty of sitting on our thumbs.

  21. Post
    CODChimera wrote:
    don't worry there will be all sorts of cults and death crews popping up soon

    retirement looking not so good at this point
    Could be the real motivation to get rid of semi-automatic guns

  22. Post

  23. Post
    This is one of the problems I have with some in the Greens movement. They seem to want to oppose what seems to be a good solution, for a minor risk to wildlife. It makes me wonder if they are simply opposed to business (which is 1,000s of years old) as opposed to business adapting so they can continue to operate ina changing climate.


  24. Post
    This made for some sobering reading this morning.

    When the IPCC’s fifth assessment report was published in 2013, it estimated that such a doubling of CO2 was likely to produce warming within the range of 1.5 to 4.5C as the Earth reaches a new equilibrium. However, preliminary estimates calculated from the latest global climate models (being used in the current IPCC assessment, due out in 2021) are far higher than with the previous generation of models. Early reports are predicting that a doubling of CO2 may in fact produce between 2.8 and 5.8C of warming. Incredibly, at least eight of the latest models produced by leading research centres in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and France are showing climate sensitivity of 5C or warmer.
    Increasingly after my speaking events, I catch myself unexpectedly weeping in my hotel room or on flights home. Every now and then, the reality of what the science is saying manages to thaw the emotionally frozen part of myself I need to maintain to do my job. In those moments, what surfaces is pure grief. It’s the only feeling that comes close to the pain I felt processing the severity of my dad’s brain injury. Being willing to acknowledge the arrival of the point of no return is an act of bravery.

    But these days my grief is rapidly being superseded by rage. Volcanically explosive rage. Because in the very same IPCC report that outlines the details of the impending apocalypse, the climate science community clearly stated that limiting warming to 1.5C is geophysically possible.

  25. Post
    Well considering that the IPCC is conservative, I have always thought that the situation is way worse than what they paint it.