The climate change debate and potential solutions thread

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  1. Post
    GaR wrote:
    No one said NZ can fix climate change. You're making shit up.
    I am questioning whether we are making the right decisions for NZ in the face of climate change.

  2. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    I am questioning whether we are making the right decisions for NZ in the face of climate change.
    No, you're arguing against things no one has said. You literally called it a fallacy when it only came from your imagination.

  3. Post
    Some good news to end the year with ... RCP 8.5 seems unrealistic (As Gneiss pointed out earlier) and we are more likely to see less warming than that forecast, however the lessor scenarios are still bad for many.

  4. Post
    For the skeptics


  5. Post
    ^a really good watch

  6. Post
    A summary of climate-affected weather events in 2019


  7. Post
    I saw today that a climate change skeptic aussie politician got roasted about climate change vs the bushfires - it drew my interest so I did a bit of sniffing around.

    A couple of things worth noting:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Fridayushfires

    and

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/austra...tarters-in-nsw

    and this from last year: https://jennifermarohasy.com/2019/03/hottest-summer/

    tldr:
    - Victoria recorded hottest temps ever and had massive deadly bushfires in 1939, 71 people died.
    - people have been deliberately lighting fires and are being prosecuted

    There is talk of lack of scrub clearing/back burning contributing but I cannot find any hard data and it seems to be a he said / she said argument.

    So are the bushfires really caused by climate change? Or a combination of hot weather within a boundaries of weather patterns for the last century, plus poor bush (fuel) management, plus arseholes lighting fires for whatever reasons?

  8. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    So are the bushfires really caused by climate change? Or a combination of hot weather within a boundaries of weather patterns for the last century, plus poor bush (fuel) management, plus arseholes lighting fires for whatever reasons?
    It's exacerbated greatly by climate change. The fire season is getting longer (as predicted) and the fires more extreme. There were also massive fires in 1851 I believe. But this will go from a once in a lifetime event to a much more common occurrence, on account of shifting weather patterns bringing less rain and more hot air, and thus drying out the region to the point that it is like a tinderbox.

  9. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    So are the bushfires really caused by climate change? Or a combination of hot weather within a boundaries of weather patterns for the last century, plus poor bush (fuel) management, plus arseholes lighting fires for whatever reasons?
    The thing about climate and its connection to weather is quite simple.

    If we imagine the world is a kettle and water is the climate. As the water heats up, bubbles form; basic physics. These bubbles can be thought of as weather events. As the water heats up, bubbles become bigger and more active until eventually the whole water is boiling. Now imagine we humans are the frog in the kettle. Initially the water seems nice and comfortable, but as the water heats up more bubbles cause the frog to be jostled around. Eventually it will become too hot and frog will die.

    So yeah, there is a connection between extreme weather events, likes droughts, heatwaves, storms, hurricanes, etc. and climate.

  10. Post
    s0cks wrote:
    It's exacerbated greatly by climate change. The fire season is getting longer (as predicted) and the fires more extreme. There were also massive fires in 1851 I believe. But this will go from a once in a lifetime event to a much more common occurrence, on account of shifting weather patterns bringing less rain and more hot air, and thus drying out the region to the point that it is like a tinderbox.
    It's much more influenced by the availability of fuel.

    https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/fire.htm

    There's a lot of parallels with Australia in this article.

  11. Post
    s0cks wrote:
    It's exacerbated greatly by climate change.
    My question I guess how exactly do you quantify that. Right now we see celebs placing the blame almost exclusively on CC, and those who question this as a fact facing accusations of heresy.

    I found this interesting:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfi...s_in_Australia

  12. Post
    Want a direct link.

    1: Climate change is affecting the jetstreams all over the world.
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/3...on-temperature
    https://www.ft.com/content/591395fe-...d-8e884d3ea203
    As the world gets warmer, the behaviour of the jet stream is one of the most studied and hotly debated mysteries of climate change. Scientists are racing to understand how this current of air is changing as the planet heats up, and whether it will get stronger or weaker — which holds big implications for weather patterns, crop yields and rising sea levels.

    2: The one that hit Australia heated up over Africa and then came down heavily over Australia.
    https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/conte...stormy-weather
    A shift in the jet stream is responsible for a period of severe weather affecting multiple states and territories in Australia this week and some parts of New Zealand.
    3: This of course heats up an already hot dry continent even further.
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren....17,-20.80,657

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  14. Post
    No one's saying it's not getting hotter.

    But there are other factors that are making it much worse.

    Every picture I see of burnt out Aussie houses has charred gum trees in close proximity.

    It's dumb, [and invalidates your insurance cover] to not take reasonable steps to protect your property.

  15. Post
    just want to mention that the hotter weather also makes it harder to do burn offs safely. None the less the east coast are useless at doing them still which doesn't help

  16. Post
    gneiss wrote:
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    In one of the articles I linked to above: https://www.spectator.com.au/2019/03...-weve-changed/

    Would like to hear your thoughts on whether this is junk science or legit.

  17. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    Would like to hear your thoughts on whether this is junk science or legit.
    Are you asking if Jenny from the Spectator has a valid scientific argument?

    Of course not. The raw temps are changed to reflect the increasing accuracy of newer instruments. She even states this in the article, but then goes on to dismiss it because she doesn't believe the difference between ACORN-V1 and ACORN-V2 is justified. Of course she has no counter-evidence of any kind. I bet if the newer version had shown less warming she'd have barely batted an eyelid.

    If you want to look at the science:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46362-x
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8537
    https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0222328

    I know you don't wish to believe that climate change plays a major role in any of these events, but the fact is it does, and it's becoming more and more obvious. In fact, in this new study they find that the fingerprint of AGW can be found in every single day of weather since 2012:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0666-7

    Northern Europe hasn't had a winter yet, with their temps, in some places, over 20C warmer than usual.

  18. Post
    The fact that we are now seeing the effects/fingerprints of climate change already, should be very worrying. What was once forecast to happen in decades or even a century can now be observed now, essentially means the scientists have been too conservative with their forecasts to date.

  19. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    My question I guess how exactly do you quantify that. Right now we see celebs placing the blame almost exclusively on CC, and those who question this as a fact facing accusations of heresy.

    I found this interesting:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfi...s_in_Australia
    I just found that these wiki entries are being maliciously edited. Not you Vulcan is it?

    Quote from Reddit:

    If you look more closely, that figure of 290m acres was only added this morning by an anonymous user (IP 203.219.11.46) and is supported by a singular citation that doesn't work. He changed it from the figure of 11m it displayed for the last several years which was supported by working citations from the National Inquiry on Bushfire Management, the Bushfires Royal Commission Report and a Parliamentary Research Committee report. You can see that the user also edited other old bushfires to increase their claimed size by a factor of 10, and another user reverting their edits pointing out their citations didn't support them. And in fact they initially enlarged the 1974 bushfire size from 11m to 29m before going to 290m.

    This seems like part of a recent trend on Wikipedia of climate change deniers editing old data to be closer to current data.
    The older wiki page (linked in quote), when sorting bushfires by hectares burned is very different to the recently updated page.

  20. Post
    s0cks wrote:
    I know you don't wish to believe that climate change plays a major role in any of these events, but the fact is it does, and it's becoming more and more obvious. In fact, in this new study they find that the fingerprint of AGW can be found in every single day of weather since 2012:
    Sure I believe CC has an impact. But when you have a bunch of kids with CC-Anxiety running around starting the fires along with a bunch of crazy birds... it seems CC is contributory but not the exclusive or even primary cause.

    That wiki stuff is a bit insane tbh. What's the point.

  21. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    Sure I believe CC has an impact. But when you have a bunch of kids with CC-Anxiety running around starting the fires along with a bunch of crazy birds... it seems CC is contributory but not the exclusive or even primary cause.

    That wiki stuff is a bit insane tbh. What's the point.
    Anyone saying it's the primary cause of the the fire is dumb, but I suspect what people are saying is that it's the primary contributor to the ferocity. I'm not so sure how true that is myself, but it certainly has played a major role in drying out the area that has burned or is burning.

  22. Post
    I am slowly coming to the conclusion that "It's too Late!"

  23. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    I am slowly coming to the conclusion that "It's too Late!"
    Way too late.

  24. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    I am slowly coming to the conclusion that "It's too Late!"
    There are no realistic solutions available within the required time frame. The best we can do now is to prepare our children and grandchildren to survive in a much more hostile world (both environmentally and geopolitically).

  25. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    I am slowly coming to the conclusion that "It's too Late!"
    Too late for what?