The climate change debate and potential solutions thread

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  1. Post
    gneiss wrote:
    Too late for what?
    Too late to stop what is coming down.

    Why?
    1: Western Nations too slow to implement the require changes in time; sheesh by 2050, way too late!
    2: Developing Nations too busy trying to lift their people out of poverty and other more immediate problems
    3: Changes are now observable on global scale: Tipping points? Extreme Weather, Faster meltings, Ecological extinctions, etc.

    Meanwhile the world is distracted by stupid military brinkmanship, and celebrity/royality scandals, etc.

    I thought studying CC would make things easier for me, but the more I read the more fearful I have become of the future.

  2. Post
    I wonder what you think is coming not why, I know the why. As I said many pages ago, we’ve locked in at least 1.2 degrees C for hundreds of years, there’s no going back to average 20th century temps. So, too late for what?

  3. Post
    Zombie armageddon .

  4. Post
    gneiss wrote:
    I wonder what you think is coming
    Here is what is likely coming over the next few decades;

    1: Population / Consumer / Business growth exceeding available and reducing resources causing;
    --- famines (ongoing in too many places now)
    --- conflicts (Syria is just the beginning)
    --- water shortages -- e.g. glaciers melting fast affecting billions of people
    --- continued poverty
    --- causing climate change
    2: Climate Change causing
    --- reduced resources affecting as above
    --- more frequent extreme weather events; droughts, heatwaves, storms, etc.
    --- ecological extinctions (6th mass extinction) -- e.g. fishing grounds disappearing
    --- rising sea levels
    --- mass migrations
    --- ... and probably more besides.
    3: Societal breakdown causing
    --- increasing poverty
    --- increasing anger towards migrants
    --- more crime, violence, etc.
    --- conflicts (internal, external, both at the same time)
    --- collapsing industries dependent on ecological resources
    --- economic collapse

    I could go on, but you get the picture.
    scholar wrote:
    There are no realistic solutions available within the required time frame. The best we can do now is to prepare our children and grandchildren to survive in a much more hostile world (both environmentally and geopolitically).
    Exactly!

  5. Post
    Yep, agree with most of that.

  6. Post
    Trying to solve the interconnectedness of these problems is why I think it is going to get way worse before or if it gets better.

  7. Post
    scholar wrote:
    There are no realistic solutions available within the required time frame. The best we can do now is to prepare our children and grandchildren to survive in a much more hostile world (both environmentally and geopolitically).
    Yep. Form a community and start learning how to live without all the crap we have now because things are about to get bananas

  8. Post
    An article that talks about fresh water resources --- https://www.yaleclimateconnections.o...e-world-warms/

  9. Post
    Vulcan wrote:
    So you have a few million kiwis making small positive changes, and several billions not giving a f***?
    I was referencing people all over the world in general.

  10. Post
    This is something positive: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/117...-the-deep-heat

    Though I think we need to be putting a billion towards it, not 10 million over 5 years

  11. Post
    CODChimera wrote:
    Yep. Form a community and start learning how to live without all the crap we have now because things are about to get bananas
    I pretty much try to avoid buying anything but bare essentials these days. It's good for my savings, but also, it just all seems so pointless, and worse, wasteful! There is also something really liberating about not wanting anything. Like, I don't yearn for anything. It's great. Though I would love to win lotto just so I could retire, cus the flip side is that working now feels even more pointless.

  12. Post
    "I could retire, cus the flip side is that working now feels even more pointless. "
    --- it is pointless --- life is too short now to waste it making money for ever more stuff --- I spend my days now playing games, watch videos and family and friends --- much more rewarding than any work day ever provided.

  13. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    "I could retire, cus the flip side is that working now feels even more pointless. "
    --- it is pointless --- life is too short now to waste it making money for ever more stuff --- I spend my days now playing games, watch videos and family and friends --- much more rewarding than any work day ever provided.
    It's not even just the whole making money for useless crap. It's also the drama at work (mostly from customers) that just seems so petty and meaningless. Hard to take seriously someone's IT problems when the world is heading for climate catastrophe.

  14. Post
    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201912

    Latest NOAA report on global climate

  15. Post
    There are a lot of people in Russia, Europe and North America worried about how warm it is in January. People have been posting up pictures of trees budding, animals coming out of hibernation, bees waking up, etc... When it should be cold and snowy, it is more like spring. Looks like a cold snap might hit them later this month or next as the polar vortex shifts.

    I wonder how commercial orchards are going to cope with this kind of erratic weather. Could fruit production in the near future could take a significant hit?

    Pretty scary how quickly these huge systems are unravelling. Fortunately it's been a very average sort of summer here in Auckland. It's been quite cool, though I won't be surprised if Feb/March is blisteringly hot.

  16. Post
    I have joined a group whose aim is to stop TMA cutting down mature 'exotic' trees, and replacing them with native seedlings

    However, opponents to this group have chosen to act like this.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12301143

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    This is really awful.

    s0cks wrote:
    Hard to take seriously someone's IT problems when the world is heading for climate catastrophe.
    Well to be fair, it wont seriously affect New Zealand for some decades yet. So while here in New Zealand, look for ways to earn/save money and then look for places to move to with the money you have accumulated, and then make preparations for the coming catastrophe, which is becoming ever more likely, but thankful not on most of our lifetimes.
    Last edited by KiwiTT; 17th January 2020 at 11:25 am.

  17. Post
    s0cks wrote:
    It's not even just the whole making money for useless crap. It's also the drama at work (mostly from customers) that just seems so petty and meaningless. Hard to take seriously someone's IT problems when the world is heading for climate catastrophe.
    I hear you. When I was working last year I spent weeks and weeks polishing a report, even though I knew that it would be read by exactly one person for about 10 minutes and then binned.

    Hard to find motivation to go into work each day, other than remembering that they pay me so I can feed the kids.

  18. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    I have joined a group whose aim is to stop TMA cutting down mature 'exotic' trees, and replacing them with native seedlings

    However, opponents to this group have chosen to act like this.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12301143
    .
    Can you explain the motivation of the group for me? Replacing exotics with natives is widely thought to be the best path among conservation groups.

  19. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:

    Well to be fair, it wont seriously affect New Zealand for some decades yet. So while here in New Zealand, look for ways to earn/save money and then look for places to move to with the money you have accumulated, and then make preparations for the coming catastrophe, which is becoming ever more likely, but thankful not on most of our lifetimes.
    You might be lucky and avoid most of it but the rest of us certainly won't. NZ will absolutely be seriously affected though, with globalism it's impossible that we won't. Supply chains, the global economy, immigration, wars over resources/land etc

  20. Post
    scholar wrote:
    I hear you. When I was working last year I spent weeks and weeks polishing a report, even though I knew that it would be read by exactly one person for about 10 minutes and then binned.

    Hard to find motivation to go into work each day, other than remembering that they pay me so I can feed the kids.
    Agreed, finding a job that makes a positive difference seems to be much more important than we were ever told.

  21. Post
    gneiss wrote:
    Can you explain the motivation of the group for me? Replacing exotics with natives is widely thought to be the best path among conservation groups.
    From their files
    Why this matters

    Auckland has already lost more than 30% of its urban trees since Resource Management Act changes in 2012. It is a climate emergency, so trees are needed more than ever before yet Tūpuna Maunga Authority plans to fell at least 2000 trees off all 14 Auckland maunga under its control. The proposed native vegetation comprise mostly small plants that will only sequester a fraction of carbon compared to the condemned trees. Experts agree the best results will be achieved through succession planting over many decades. Removing so many trees in a short timeframe will affect the maunga, its lifeforms and the surrounding environment for many years to come. Tūpuna Maunga Authority has never consulted anybody (Māori or non-Māori) about its plans to fell all exotic trees from Auckland maunga. What’s more, it has refused to hold a public meeting to answer people’s questions. Auckland Council (who funds the Authority) has also failed its obligations to the people of Auckland.
    Ōwairaka’s trees -fiction versus fact

    Fiction: Most of the exotic trees are pest species
    Fact: The Auckland Regional Pest Management Strategy defines only 7 of Ōwairaka’s 345 trees as being pestspecies.

    Fiction: The (130) flowering cherry trees on Ōwairaka are pest species
    Fact: We got an independent botanist and an independent arbourist to check the trees. Both advised that they are the common flowering cherry Prunus serralata, which is not a pest species.

    Fiction: Eucalyptus trees poison the soil so nothing can grow under them
    Fact: Young native trees can be seen happily growing underneath larger eucalyptus trees in the bush at the back of the archery field. Most of Ōwairaka’s eucalyptus trees are in very exposed areas, where little else can survive. It is therefore the harsh environment, rather than the trees, which is causing the problem. Note that the eucalyptus trees form wind-breaks around the maunga, so removing them will result in much harsher growing conditions for the native plantings.

    Fiction: Exotic trees take up water and nutrients that could be better used by native trees.
    Fact: All trees work together to form communities and do not discriminate between exotic and native like we do. Mature trees nurture the young trees. See for yourself the countless native seedlings growing in the protective shelter of the exotic trees at the back of the archery and soccer fields.

    Fiction: Many of the exotic trees are health and safety hazards
    Fact: Health and safety is constantly used to justify the destruction of Auckland's urban forest. We can find no evidence of a TMA expert H&S assessment of the health and safety risks of Owairaka's trees.

    Spin: The 345 exotic trees will be replaced with 13,000 native plants
    Fact: The vast majority of these plants are low-growing species such as grasses and sedges. Very few trees will be planted, which will take many decades to reach a level of maturity where they can even come close to replacing the benefits of the felled trees
    So yeah! ... remember how I was offered the opportunity to join a tree planting group to do my bit ... I think protecting existing mature trees maybe a more worthwhile option, as any trees planted would take decades to be as effective as these 2,000 trees they plan on cutting down.
    CODChimera wrote:
    You might be lucky and avoid most of it but the rest of us certainly won't. NZ will absolutely be seriously affected though, with globalism it's impossible that we won't. Supply chains, the global economy, immigration, wars over resources/land etc
    Given that the IPCC says we still have a decade to turn things around to achieve 1.5C, I am inclined to believe we will see gradual changes to which sufficient nations have the resources to adapt (read:Western Nations), and most of the pain will be felt in poor countries who are not really our trading partners over the first few decades, by which time I and many others will be gone or too old (I'm 60 in a couple of years). However, that does not mean we cant prepare our younger generations for what is coming.
    Last edited by KiwiTT; 17th January 2020 at 6:19 pm.

  22. Post
    Thanks for reformatting your post, your first paste was a dogs breakfast and pretty much unreadable. I’ll look into it some more if I get time. Your info if true, seems reasonable. I say if true, because it’s written from your group’s p.o.v. and they obviously present their side of the story.

    Do you know what will happen to the felled trees? Like, will they be used for furniture, housing etc?

  23. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    Given that the IPCC says we still have a decade to turn things around to achieve 1.5C, I am inclined to believe we will see gradual changes to which sufficient nations have the resources to adapt (read:Western Nations), and most of the pain will be felt in poor countries who are not really our trading partners over the first few decades, by which time I and many others will be gone or too old (I'm 60 in a couple of years). However, that does not mean we cant prepare our younger generations for what is coming.
    It's already affecting 'first world' countries though.

    Saw this on reddit and it's very fitting:

  24. Post
    gneiss wrote:
    Do you know what will happen to the felled trees? Like, will they be used for furniture, housing etc?
    TMA are very poor at communication. They seem a law unto themselves.

    They are treating the maunga as private property, when it is still 'public land', albeit managed by the TMA.
    CODChimera wrote:
    It's already affecting 'first world' countries though.
    True. But western nations still have many more economic buffers, before the impacts are widely felt. Hence why western countries public are only now just getting to notice that something needs to be done, but how/what/when is the $trillion questions. Do we accept it is inevitable, or do we try to stem it?

  25. Post
    KiwiTT wrote:
    They are treating the maunga as private property, when it is still 'public land', albeit managed by the TMA.True. But western nations still have many more economic buffers, before the impacts are widely felt. Hence why western countries public are only now just getting to notice that something needs to be done, but how/what/when is the $trillion questions. Do we accept it is inevitable, or do we try to stem it?
    It's going to depend on how fast the climate shifts. If the breadbaskets for wealthy nations collapse due to drought/floods/extreme heat then things will turn around very quickly. And the latest news is showing that climate sensitivity is likely much higher than previously thought, which means the carbon budget for 1.5C will either already be blown, or will be much smaller than previously thought. I'm betting on 2C before 2040.